Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 15.587720 17.771959 20.112659 22.802977 25.804927 29.046690 32.807389
2025-08-24 12.256536 15.218877 18.630095 22.829786 27.840788 33.606975 40.721806
2025-08-31 10.399619 13.650767 17.572273 22.615683 28.891085 36.400618 46.020879
2025-09-07 9.119024 12.581763 16.934761 22.752785 30.261512 39.555636 51.850126
2025-09-14 8.341234 12.010740 16.788869 23.385722 32.163453 43.336364 58.510543
2025-09-21 7.389623 11.087916 16.068806 23.161062 32.873448 45.563627 63.225284
2025-09-28 6.340986 9.909489 14.877533 22.167279 32.431505 46.183300 65.773817
2025-10-05 5.954821 9.631456 14.894653 22.813538 34.223298 49.828540 72.487377
2025-10-12 5.563105 9.300595 14.795647 23.262993 35.731478 53.118732 78.819318
2025-10-19 5.059711 8.747612 14.317807 23.108713 36.337463 55.142797 83.432530
2025-10-26 4.598817 8.215576 13.823242 22.880077 36.795652 56.943487 87.763315
2025-11-02 4.250115 7.831060 13.521466 22.912292 37.622525 59.284714 92.933842
2025-11-09 3.958392 7.522626 13.326934 23.112421 38.735199 62.126060 99.008853
2025-11-16 3.644023 7.146671 12.994059 23.066482 39.456701 64.405850 104.335269
2025-11-23 3.336752 6.752032 12.595329 22.875864 39.919415 66.284123 109.091899
2025-11-30 3.115840 6.492065 12.402049 23.005364 40.888105 68.961956 115.148638
2025-12-07 2.998294 6.412703 12.512454 23.647702 42.713863 73.035935 123.499511
2025-12-14 2.755653 6.071765 12.134156 23.419702 43.074018 74.787345 128.247964
2025-12-21 2.425419 5.526759 11.345429 22.416517 42.064597 74.279901 129.360447
2025-12-28 2.349388 5.485644 11.481078 23.069016 43.913791 78.483534 138.186269
2026-01-04 2.252211 5.391701 11.509127 23.522940 45.430903 82.184422 146.302877
2026-01-11 2.088142 5.141070 11.218355 23.367127 45.859048 84.074902 151.490075
2026-01-18 1.929203 4.885985 10.899593 23.136248 46.134554 85.706154 156.284235